With Oil Down Big, Which Oil Companies Are A Buy?

With Oil Down Big, Which Oil Companies Are A Buy?

It seems nowadays that oil prices dominate all news outlets. Every day there is a new development and a new “bottom” in oil prices. It seems not too long ago that analysts and banks were talking about $100+/barrel in oil prices was the new norm and to expect it to go even higher. There are many theories for why the oil prices are as low as they are. One argument though could be that oil >$100/barrel was unrealistic and we are closer to the real value of oil now. One thing is for certain is that no one knows where the bottom for oil will be and for how long the price will reside close to this bottom.

Read More

Question Posed: Where Can I Invest $5,000 In Today's Market?

Question Posed: Where Can I Invest $5,000 In Today's Market?

One question posed to me looked at investing some disposable income ($5,000) in today's market. They want to set it and forget it or at most irregularly check the account. This question is very tough because you never want to lose money and especially money from someone who trusts you. This forced me to think about their needs and what they hope to achieve from this investment.

Read More

Quarterly Report: 4th QTR 2014

Quarterly Report: 4th QTR 2014
"Goodbye 2014 and hello 2015. Let's see what happens next." - Anonymous

The fourth quarter of 2014 was quite brutal for the IWC Stock Portfolio with an overall negative return. Two big reasons for the decline was huge stock depreciations from Qihoo 360 (QIHU) and Yandex (YNDX). We go into more detail below (Table 1) on how each position did during the fourth quarter. 

Read More

Some Changes To Investing Philosophy

Some Changes To Investing Philosophy

Income investors swear by them, growth investors mock them and retail investors typically ignore them. Dividends have sometimes been the investing basis or an afterthought with some investing experts. There are some companies that have been increasing every year for decades. Some examples are Proctor & Gamble (PG) and Coca-Cola (KO) who have raise dividends for 50+ years. There are other popular companies for investors that have never paid a dividend nor plan to for the foreseeable future. Some examples include Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN). Investing in any of the above companies has improved your portfolio but for vastly different reasons. Looking forward to the continual evolution of the IWC Stock Portfolio, one idea kept popping into my head for how the portfolio should be managed. The goal is to develop a portfolio that is self-sustaining. One great way for a portfolio to be self-sustaining is to have a growing dividend output which provides yearly income that you can live from. This is the thought that has pushed for a slight adjustment in the IWC Philosophy.

Read More

First Closed Position: The Fall Of The Yandex Investing Thesis

First Closed Position: The Fall Of The Yandex Investing Thesis

Investing in Yandex (YNDX) was in a way following on my investment thesis of the internet and internet adoption being the future for developing countries. Two of the first positions and pillars to the IWC Stock Portoflio are Baidu (BIDU) and Qihoo 360 (QIHU) for this reason. Yandex was following in those footsteps. Russia, like China, has a low internet adoption rate that is growing, Yandex is the leader in search in Russia with over 60% market share, and the company was trading at multiples that were not aligned with how fast they were growing. A stock position began in April 28, 2014 as a value investment. If you remember this time, it was probably at the height of the Russian-Ukraine tensions with Russia taking over Crimea and rebels invading Eastern Ukraine. The thinking was that Yandex was performing with similar growth metrics as Baidu but trading at a significant discount. My investment thesis bore fruit until the recent crash in the Russian ruble and threats of unrest in Russia having sent the stock price down. The position grew for a period of time as political unrest eased but then plummeted down to Earth. 

Read More

What Is Going On With Oil And The Stock Market?

What Is Going On With Oil And The Stock Market?

"Sometimes the best plans fall victim to circumstance" - Anonymous

The month of December has been a humbling month for the IWC Stock Portfolio. The results will be shown early 2015 with the 4th QTR wrap-up but if things don't turn around we could be seeing a negative return for 2014. The first full calendar year for the IWC Stock Fund has been a learning experience with a few twists and turns but the current landscape does provide some opportunities potentially. I wanted to share a few quick thoughts I've had over the past few days looking at the IWC Stock Portfolio and the overall stock market performance.

Stock Market Weakness

Currently the stock market has taken a turn for the negative with oil companies being the major focus. There are lots of news items and discussions on what Saudi Arabia is doing with OPEC........

Read More

Thoughts On Earnings: How Do NOV, BIDU, and CTSH Look After Earnings?

Thoughts On Earnings: How Do NOV, BIDU, and CTSH Look After Earnings?

Companies that are in the oil industry have been rocked due to oil prices shrinking so much. Whether that is political, supply and demand, market share driven, the key issue with investing in oil companies is no one knows when oil prices will increase again. $60/barrel oil may be a phenomenon for months or prices we see for years. National Oilwell Varco has no been immune to this news but this should be looked at as a buying opportunity potentially and management feels the same way. Authorizing $3 Billion in share buybacks will help return value to shareholders. Revenue increased 17% compared to same quarter in 2013, net income increased almost 13% to $1.9B. The balance sheet is very strong with over $4B in cash reserves which could help whether the recent weakness in oil prices. 

Read More